Economic and Business Forecasting

Due to the Great Recession and the accompanying financial crisis, the premium on effective economic analysis, especially the two aspects of that analysis and accurate forecasting of economic and financial variables, has significantly increased. Economic and Business Forecasting introduces statistical techniques that can help characterize the behavior of economic relationships, testing whether certain series such as output, employment, profits, and interest rates exhibit a steady pace of growth over time, or if that pace has drifted.

Focused on a select set of major economic and financial variables—such as economic growth, final sales, employment, inflation, interest rates, corporate profits, financial ratios and the exchange value of the dollar—Economic and Business Forecasting employs econometric techniques and the statistical software SAS^™ serves as a template for readers to apply to variables of interest. These variables form the core of an effective decision-making process in both the private and public sectors.

Providing a practical forecasting framework for important everyday applications, this book considers questions including:

• How can we identify economic series that appear to be behaving in typical cyclical fashion compared to those that are not?
• Why have exceptionally low mortgage interest rates not spurred a pickup in housing as in prior recoveries?
• If a time series displays a cyclical component, how does it behave as we move through the business cycle?
• Do turning points in the time series lead or lag those of other series?

Discover the secrets to applying simple econometric techniques to improve forecasting with the proven guidance found in Economic and Business Forecasting.