Framing Decisions

List of Figures xi

Preface xiii

1 An Evolving Decision-Making Paradigm 1

The Traditional Paradigm 3

The Real World 5

Rethinking Decision Making 8

The Cognitive Challenge 15

Adjusting to the New Paradigm 16

Conclusion: It Isn’t Easy Getting It Right 18

2 Decisions and Decision Making 21

Different Perspectives on Decision Making 25

Rational, Irrational, Nonrational Decisions 38

Dealing with Unknowns 42

3 The Social Context of Decision Making 47

The Social Context 49

The Social Space of Decision Making 51

Allison’s Multiple Perspectives on Decision Making 52

The Link Between Stakeholder and Decision-Maker 55

The Implementation Challenge 56

Accommodating External Forces 57

Conclusion 58

4 The Organizational Dimension 61

Organizational Structure 62

Organizational Process 69

People in Organizations 71

Organizational Culture 72

Conclusion 85

5 The Moral Dimension 87

Broad Categories of Moral Failings 89

Moral Hazard 101

Principal-Agent Dilemma 107

Morality, Ethics, and Legality: They Are Different 109

Last Word 111

6 People as Decision-Makers 115

Factors That Affect How Individuals Make Decisions 116

A Unique Perspective on Personality and Decision Making:

Elliott Jaques, Human Capability, and Time Span of Discretion 135

Conclusion 138

7 The Wisdom–and Foolishness–of Crowds 141

Individual Versus Group Decision-Participation Spectrum 141

Making Decisions in Groups 148

Degrees of Consensus 150

Defining Consensus 150

Reaching a Decision 159

The Wisdom and Foolishness of Crowds 162

Honeybee Decision Making 173

8 The Biology of Decision Making 177

Brain Basics 178

The Lazy Brain 179

Visual Illusions: What You See Isn’t What You Get 186

Examples of Visual Illusions 189

Brain Deception Beyond Visual Illusions 197

The Maturing Brain 200

Conclusion 207

9 Toward an Empirically Rooted Understanding of Decision Making 211

In the Beginning: Toward an Empirical View 213

Evidence of Unconscious Deliberation in Decision Making:

Three Empirical Approaches 214

The Contribution of Empirical Research: Where Do We Stand? 228

Empirical Research on Decision Making in the Neurosciences 232

The Contribution of Neuropsychology Research: Where Do We Stand? 241

The Need for Research on Decisions of Consequence 242

10 Seven Lessons 247

Seven Lessons for Highly Effective Decision-Makers 248

Last Word 258

References 261

Acknowledgments 267

The Author 269

Index 271