Veröffentlicht im Rowohlt Verlag, Hamburg, März 2019
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Die Originalausgabe erschien 2018 unter dem Titel «The New Silk Roads: The Present and Future of the World» im Verlag Bloomsbury, London
Copyright © 2018 by Peter Frankopan
Karte Peter Palm, Berlin
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ISBN Printausgabe 978-3-7371-0001-4 (1. Auflage 2019)
ISBN E-Book 978-3-644-00303-3
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Matt Warren, «Once Written Off for Dead, the Aral Sea Is Now Full of Life», National Geographic, 16. März 2018.
United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, «Drought grips large parts of Afghanistan», 6. Juni 2018.
Ben Farmer, Akhtar Makoli, «Afghanistan faces worst drought in decades, as UN warns 1.4 million people need help», The Kabul Times, 25. Juli 2018.
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«Persian New Year 1397; Support for Iranian Products», Khamenei.ir, 20. März 2018.
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«Afghanistan Committed to Supplying Iran’s Water Share, Zarif Says», Tasnim News Agency, 6. Mai 2018.
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«Iran-Kazakhstan transit potentials complementary: Pres. Rouhani», News Agency, 12. August 2018.
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«Silk Visa to be launched in early 2019», Kazinform, 21. Dezember 2018.
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«Iran’s transit revenues up by 20 %», Iran Daily, 10. April 2018.
«Turkey, Kazakhstan look to boost ties ‹in all areas›», Anadolu Agency, 19. April 2018.
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«Bonhomie marks opening of TAPI gas pipeline», Dawn, 24. Februar 2018.
«Reports: Pakistan pushes through accelerated plan for TAPI», Eurasianet, 2. Mai 2018.
«Taliban announce stout support for TAPI gas pipeline project», The Pashtun Times, 23. Februar 2018.
Anisa Shaheed, «Taliban Discussing Peace Offer, says Former Member», ToloNews, 11. April 2018.
Vgl. z.B. «Представители Узбекистана провели рабочие встречи с движением Талибан», UzDaily, 18. Juni 2018.
«NATO Backs Afghan Leaders’ Offer of Talks With the Taliban», Associated Press, 27. April 2018.
US-Verteidigungsministerium, «Department of Defense Press Briefing by General Nicholson via teleconference from Kabul, Afghanistan, 22 August 2018».
US-Außenministerium, Office of Inspector General, «Operation Freedom’s Sentinel: Report to the United States Congress, January 1 2018 – March 31 2018».
Bob Woodward, «Furcht. Trump im Weißen Haus», Reinbek bei Hamburg 2018, S. 293.
Gordon Lubold, Jessica Donati, «Trump Orders Big Troop Reduction in Afghanistan», Wall Street Journal, 20. Dezember 2018.
US Geological Survey, «Preliminary Assessment of Non-Fuel Mineral Resources of Afghanistan, 2007», Oktober 2007.
Global Witness, «War in the Treasury of the People. Afghanistan, lapis lazuli and the battle for mineral wealth», Mai 2016.
Global Witness, «Talc: The Everyday Mineral Funding Afghan Insurgents. How talc from Afghanistan’s opaque and poorly regulated mining sector is helping fuel the Islamic State and Taliban», Mai 2018.
Uran Botobekov, «ISIS Uses Central Asians for Suicide Missions», The Diplomat, 1. Dezember 2016; Edward Lemon, «Pathways to Violent Extremism: Evidence for Tajik recruits to Islamic State», Harriman Magazine, Sommer 2018, Columbia University New York.
Mohammed Elshimi u.a., «Understanding the Factors Contributing to Radicalisation Among Central Asian Labour Migrants in Russia», Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies, Occasional Papers, 2018.
Fikret Dolukhanov, «Uzbekistan, Tajikistan to hold joint military drills for first time», Trend News Agency, 18. April 2018; «Россия и Узбекистан дали старт совместному антитеррористическому учению», TASS, 4. Oktober 2017; Fakhir Rizvi, «China, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Tajikistan to conduct joint Counter-terrorism Exercise», Urdu Point, 26. April 2018.
Ein in der Zeitung «Hindustan Times» zitierter Sprecher des indischen Verteidigungsministeriums, «India, Kazakhstan armies begin joint military exercises in Himchal Pradesh», 2. November 2017.
«Более трех тысяч военных примут участие в учениях ШОС ‹Мирная миссия – 2018› на Урале», TASS, 4. Juni 2018.
Dipanjan Roy Chaudhury, «First joint military drills for India and Pakistan courtesy SCO», Economic Times, 9. Juni 2018.
«Iran, Pakistan to share border or peace, friendship: Pakistani Army», PressTV, 29. Dezember 2017; «Iran, Pakistan determined to boost border security», News Agency, 12. März 2018. Zur Einbestellung des iranischen Botschafters in Pakistan vgl. «Iran threatens to hit ‹terror safe havens› in Pakistan», Al-Jazeera, 9. Mai 2017.
«Iran Welcomes Gas Swap Deals with Turkmenistan», Financial Tribune, 3. April 2018; «Turkmenistan, Iran, to take gas dispute to intl. Arbitration», Iran Daily, 5. Dezember 2017.
«Turkmenistan lodges lawsuit against Iran in International Court of Arbitration», AKIPress, 17. August 2018.
«Бердымухамедов вызвал к себе руководство компании, строившей ашхабадский аэропорт из-за дефекта здания», Ozodlik, 13. Januar 2017.
Bruce Pannier, «Good News for Uzbekistan Is Not Good News for Turkmenistan», Qishloq Ovozi, 25. April 2018; «В Туркменистане дорожают лекарства, ощущается дефицит», Radio Azatlyk, 27. Juli 2018.
IWF (IMF), «Opening Up in the Caucasus and Central Asia. Policy Frameworks to Support Regional and Global Integration», Juli 2018.
Jason Holland, «Turkmenistan opens US $2.25 billion airport with 1,100 sqm of duty-free and retail space», The Moodie Davitt Report, 14. Oktober 2016.
«Бердымухамедов вызвал к себе руководство компании, строившей ашхабадский аэропорт из-за дефекта здания», Озодлик, 13. Januar 2017.
«Ниже уровня толчка. В Гумдаге полиция занялась туалетами и мусорными свалками», Альтернативные новости Туркменистана, 21. Mai 2018.
Attracta Mooney, «Kazakh sovereign wealth fund is latest victim of oil price fall», Financial Times, 8. Januar 2016.
Edward Robinson, «Bank’s $4 Billion Fraud Allegations Return to London Courtroom», Bloomberg, 20. November 2017.
Max Seddon, Lionel Barber, Kathrin Hille, «Elvira Nabiullina shuts down Russia’s banking ‹banditry›», Financial Times, 19. Oktober 2016.
«Taliban pledge protection as construction starts on Afghan part of TAPI pipeline», BNE Intellinews, 26. Februar 2018.
Bruce Pannier, «Why Didn’t Turkmen, Uzbek Leaders Mention ‹Line D› to China?», Qishloq Ovozi, 27. April 2018.
«Tajik Muslim Leader Declares Boxing, Other Sports Forbidden», RadioFreeEurope, 1. Juni 2018.
«Tajikistan slaps restrictions on imports from Uzbekistan», Eurasianet, 6. Juli 2018.
Mullorachab Yusyfi, «Тақозо аз додситонӣ: ‹Қарори вазорати маорифро бекор кунед›», Radio Ozodi, 26. Juni 2018.
«Туркменистан: не достигшие тридцатилетия мужчины не будут допущены к зарубежным поездкам», Radio Azatlyk, 16. April 2018.
«New Fronts, Brave Voices. Press Freedom in South Asia 2016–2017», IFJ Press Freedom Report for South Asia, 2016–2017; «Another journalist targeted», Daily Times, 23. Juni 2018; Raju Gopalakrishnan, «Indian journalists say they are intimidated, ostracised if they criticise Modi and the BJP», Reuters, 26. April 2018.
«Kazakh police detain dozens at anti-government rally», Reuters, 9. Mai 2018; Joanna Lillis, «Is Kazakhstan’s political opposition creeping back?», Eurasianet, 24. Mai 2018.
Artemy Kalinovsky, «Central Asia’s Precarious Path to Development», Foreign Affairs, 2. August 2018.
«Internet grinds to a near-halt in Tajikistan», Eurasianet, 6. August 2018.
Catherine Putz, «From Bad to Worse: Press Freedom in Eurasia Continues to Decline», The Diplomat, 26. April 2018.
Zu den Schwierigkeiten, eine Balance zwischen widerstreitenden Ansichten zu Zentralasien zu finden, vgl. z.B. Paul Goble, «A Year in Review: More Problems, More Reforms, More Cooperation for Central Asia in 2017», Eurasia Daily Monitor 15.4 (2018).
IWF (IMF), «Islamic Republic of Iran, IMF Country Report 18/93», 2018.
«Iran currency hits record low, crashing through 50,000 rial to the US dollar», The Times of Israel, 28. März 2018.
«Six charts that explain the Iran protests», BBC News, 4. Januar 2018.
Vgl. Karim Sadjadpour, «The Battle for Iran», The Atlantic, 31. Dezember 2017; Najmeh Bozorgmehr, «Iran’s disillusioned youth spare no one in display of anger», Financial Times, 2. Januar 2018.
Donald Trump, Tweet vom 1. Januar 2018.
Brent D. Griffiths, «Giuliani: Trump is ‹committed to› regime change in Iran», Politico, 5. Mai 2018.
«Full text of speech by Rudy Giuliani at Grand Gathering 2018», Iran Probe, 5. Juli 2018. Diese Versammlung der Exiliraner fand in Paris statt; vgl. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yw8pEYlTa5A.
White House, «Remarks by President Trump on the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action», 8. Mai 2018.
International Atomic Energy Agency, «Verification and monitoring in the Islamic Republic of Iran in light of United Nations Security Council resolution 2231 (2015)», 22. Februar 2018.
White House, «Remarks by LTG H.R. McMaster at the United States Holocaust Memorial Museum Simon-Skjodt Center – ‹Syria, Is the Worst Yet to Come?›», 15. März 2018, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-ltg-h-r-mcmaster-united-states-holocaust-memorialmuseum-simon-skjodt-center-syria-worst-yet-come/.
Jeffrey Goldberg, «Saudi Crown Prince: Iran’s Supreme Leader ‹Makes Hitler Look Good›», The Atlantic, 2. April 2018.
«Iran hits back over Saudi’s prince’s ‹Hitler› comment», BBC News, 24. November 2017.
«Mohammad bin Salman’s full interview», Al Arabiya, 3. Mai 2017.
«Iran warns Saudi Arabia after prince’s ‹battle’ comments›», Middle East Eye, 8. Mai 2017.
«After Crown Prince Recognizes Israel’s Right to Exist, Saudi King Reiterates Support for Palestinians», Haaretz, 4. April 2018.
Raf Sanchez, «Saudi Arabia ‹doesn’t care› about the Palestinians as long as it can make a deal with Israel against Iran, says former Netanyahu advisor», Daily Telegraph, 25. November 2017.
«Israel welcomes Saudi mufti’s pro-Israel remarks, invites him to visit the country», Daily Sabah, 14. November 2017.
Anshel Pfeffer, «Israeli minister confirms ‹secret› Saudi talks», The Times, 21. November 2017.
«Arab nations slam Israel’s ‹racist, discriminatory› Jewish nation-state law», Times of Israel, 21. Juli 2018; Times of Israel, «High Court said to advise El Al to drop suit over Saudi route to India», 22. Juli 2018.
Amir Tibon, «Report: Netanyahu Asked Trump to Stick With Saudi Crown Prince After Khashoggi Murder», Haaretz, 1. November 2018.
«Donald Trump’s New York press conference», CNN, Transkript, 27. September 2018.
Xinhua, Rede von Xi Jinping, «Promote People-to-People Friendship and Create a Better Future», 7. September 2013.
Richard A. Boucher, «US Policy in Central Asia: Balancing Priorities (Part II)», Statement to the House International Relations Subcommittee on the Middle East and Central Asia, 26. April 2006.
Pekinger Volkszeitung, «US scheming for ‹Great Central Asia› strategy», 4. August 2006; S. Frederick Starr, «A Partnership for Central Asia», Foreign Affairs, Juli/August 2005.
US State Department, «Remarks on India and the United States: A Vision for the 21st Century», 20. Juli 2011.
China.org.cn, «Decision of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Some Major Issues Concerning Comprehensively Deepening the Reform», Article 26, Section VII, 12. November 2013.
Informationsamt des Chinesischen Staatsrates, «Six major economic corridors form the ‹Belt and Road› framework. China Development Bank invests $890bn», 2. Mai 2015.
Export-Import Bank of China, Pressemitteilung, «Bank plays a policy-based financial role to support the construction of ‹One Belt and One Road›», 14. Januar 2014.
China International Trade Institute, «Industrial Cooperation between Countries along the Belt and Road», August 2015.
HSBC, «Reshaping the Future World Economy», 11. Mai 2017.
Nadia Rocha Gaffuri u.a., «How Much will the Belt and Road Inititive reduce trade costs?», World Bank Policy Working Paper 8614, Oktober 2018.
«Full text of President Xi Jinping’s speech at opening of Belt and Road forum», Xinhua, 14. Mai 2017.
Rani Sankar Bosu, «BRI will bring China and ASEAN closer», China.org.cn, 22. Mai 2017.
«President Xi says to build Belt and Road into road for peace, prosperity», Xinhua, 14. Mai 2017.
«What’s wrong with the world? What can we do?», https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RkkGb14zIVY.
«Full text of President Xi Jinping’s speech at opening of Belt and Road forum», Xinhua, 14. Mai 2017.
James Kynge, «How the Silk Road plans will be financed», Financial Times, 9. Mai 2016.
Zu Chinas Erfahrungen in den 1980er und 1990er Jahren vgl. Julian Gewirtz, «Unlikely Partners: Chinese Reformers, Western Economists, and the Making of Global China», Cambridge, MA 2017.
Jamil Anderlini, «Interview: ‹We say, if you want to get rich, build roads first›», Financial Times, 25. September 2018.
Jonathan E. Hillman, «How Big Is China’s Belt and Road?», Center for Strategic and International Studies, 3. April 2018.
Vgl. dazu grundsätzlich Peter Frankopan, «Licht aus dem Osten. Eine neue Geschichte der Welt», Berlin 2016.
«Iran opens new trade link under new Silk Road plan», Press TV, 26. Juni 2018.
«В Туркменабате тожественно открыт монумент ‹Шёлковый путь›», Turkmenistan Segodnya, 8. April 2018.
Jonathan Hillman, «A Chinese world order», Washington Post, 23. Juli 2018.
Vgl. etwa Sajjad Hussain, «China’s CPEC investment in Pakistan reach $62 billion», Livemint, 12. April 2017; Arif Rafiq, «China’s $62 Billion Bet on Pakistan», Foreign Affairs, 25. Oktober 2017.
Vgl. Shahid Rashid, Executive Director to Center of Excellence for CPEC, zitiert in: «CPEC contribution to cross $100bn by 2030», The News International, 9. Februar 2018.
Khaleeq Kiani, «If all goes well, 10 CPEC projects may be completed», Dawn, 1. Januar 2018.
Mehtab Haider, «China may be involved in running Karachi–Peshawar railway», The News, 5. Februar 2018.
«Cement sales touch record high at 4.2 million tons in October», Tribune, 4. November 2017.
Eva Grey, «China turns Malaysia’s East Coast Rail Link into reality», Railway Technology, 1. Oktober 2017.
«Laotians expect Laos–China railway to bring tangible benefits», Xinhua, 4. Februar 2018.
Ein Überblick über die gegenwärtigen Infrastruktur-Großprojekte der Seidenstraßen-Initiative findet sich in «International Financing Review Asia. Asian Development Bank Special Report: Coming up Fast», April 2018.
«China to establish court for OBOR disputes», Asia Times, 25. Januar 2018.
Saptarshi Ray, «China to tunnel beneath Himalayas for Nepal railway link», The Times, 23. Juni 2018.
Anil Giri, «China looks at Nepal as potential gateway to South Asia, expands footprints in market», Hindustan Times, 19. Oktober 2017.
Turloch Mooney, «New Asia-Europe rail services added amid weak ocean rates», Journal of Commerce, 31. Mai 2016.
Zusätzliche zehn Container waren in Duisburg ausgeladen worden. «First China to UK rail freight service arrives in London», Railway Gazette, 18. Januar 2017.
Dirk Visser, «Snapshot: The World’s Ultra Large Container Ship Fleet», The Maritime Executive, 2. Juni 2018.
Zitiert in: «Western firms are coining it along China’s One Belt, One Road», The Economist, 3. August 2017.
Goldman Sachs, «The Rise of China’s New Consumer Class», http://www.goldmansachs.com/our-thinking/macroeconomic-insights/growth-of-china/chinese-consumer/.
Zhidong Li, Kokichi Ito, Ryoichi Komiyama, «Energy Demand and Supply Outlook in China for 2030 and a Northeast Asian Energy Community – The automobile strategy and nuclear power strategy of China», 2018.
Robin Mills, «China’s Big Play for Middle East Oil», Bloomberg, 10. Mai 2017; Elena Mazneva, Stephen Bierman, Javier Blas, «China Deepens Oil Ties With Russia in $9Billion Rosneft Deal», Bloomberg, 8. September 2017; Anthony Dipaola, Aibing Guo, «China’s CNPC pays $1.18 billion for concessions in Abu Dhabi», World Oil, 21. März 2018.
US Energy Information Administration, «China surpassed the United States as the world’s largest crude oil importer in 2017», 5. Februar 2017.
«Kazakhstan to produce nuclear fuel for China», Reuters, 26. Mai 2017.
Fred Gale, James Hansen, Michael Jewison, «China’s Growing Demand for Agricultural Imports», US Department of Agriculture, 2014, S. 11f.
China Water Risk, «North China Plain Groundwater», Verlautbarung vom 26. Februar 2013.
«Air quality worsening in China’s Yangtze River Delta in 2018, figures show», South China Morning Post, 23. Mai 2018.
Li Gao, «Greening Chinese Patent Law to Incentivize Green Technology Innovation in China», in: Yahong Li, «The Role of Patents in China’s Industrial Innovation», Cambridge 2017, S. 79–105.
Vgl. etwa «President vows vast battle with pollution», Xinhua, 19. Mai 2018.
Internationaler Währungsfonds, Pressemitteilung 18/200, «IMF Staff Completes 2018 Article IV Mission to China», 29. Mai 2018.
Yan Chunlin, «Visible and invisible hand in creating and reducing overcapacity», in: Scott Kennedy (Hg.), «State and market in contemporary China: Toward the 13th five year plan», Lanham, MD 2016, S. 30–32; Peter Ferdinand, «Westward ho – The China dream and ‹one belt, one road›: Chinese foreign policy under Xi Jinping», International Affairs 92.4 (2016), S. 941–957.
Andrei Kirillov, «В Казахстане регулярно говорят о некачественном ремонте дорог», Kapital, 26. Juni 2014.
Asian Development Bank, «Meeting Asia’s Infrastructure Needs», 2017.
ICE, «People Research on India’s Consumer Economy, 360° survey», 2016.
Tom Hancock, «US fast food chains chase growth in small-town China», Financial Times, 18. Oktober 2017; Salvatore Babones, «China’s middle class is pulling up the ladder behind slowly», Foreign Policy, 1. Februar 2018.
Tom Hancock, Wang Xueqiao, «China’s smaller cities compete to increase population», Financial Times, 20. Juli 2018.
Zhao Lei, «Xinjiang’s GDP growth beats the national average», China Daily, 20. Oktober 2017; Frank Tang, «Xinjiang halts all government projects as crackdown on debt gets serious», South China Morning Post, 4. April 2018.
Joseph Hope, «Returning Uighur Fighter and China’s National Security Dilemma», China Brief 18 (13), 25. Juli 2018.
Emily Feng, «Crackdown in Xinjiang: Where have all the people gone?», Financial Times, 5. August 2018.
Nectar Gan, «Ban on beards and veils – China’s Xinjiang passes law to curb ‹religious extremism›», South China Morning Post, 30. März 2017.
«China has turned Xinjiang into a police state like no other», The Economist, 3. Mai 2018; zu den Umerziehungslagern vgl. «Around 120,000 Uyghurs Detained For Political Re-Education in Xinjiang’s Kashgar Prefecture», Radio Free Asia, 22. Januar 2018.
Emily Feng, «Crackdown in Xinjiang: Where have all the people gone?», Financial Times, 5. August 2018.
Weida Li, «Beijing responds to Xinjiang policy criticism, blames ‹anti-China forces›, GB Times, 14. August 2018.
«China to UN panel: No arbitrary detention in Uighur region», Associated Press, 13. August 2018.
«Xinjiang Political ‹Re-Education Camps› Treat Uyghurs ‹Infected by Religious Extremism›: CCP Youth League», Radio Free Asia, 8. August 2018.
«President Xi vows intense pressure on terrorism», Xinhua, 27. Juni 2014.
Zhang Hui, «Xinjiang city urges terrorists to turn themselves in within 30 days», Global Times, 19. November 2018.
Philip Wen, Olzhas Auyezov, «Tracking China’s Muslim Gulag», Reuters, 29. November 2018.
«China stages another mass anti-terror rally in Xinjiang», Reuters, 19. Februar 2017.
Adrian Zenz, James Liebold, «Chen Quanguo: The Strongman Behind Beijing’s Securitization Strategy in Tibet and Xinjiang», China Brief 17 (12), 21. September 2017.
Abdullo Ashurov, «Аз донишҷӯёни тоҷик дар Чин хостанд, рӯза нагиранд», Radio Ozodi, 9. Juni 2018.
Nurtai Lakhanuly, «‹Это было как в аду›. Рассказы побывавших в китайских лагеря», Radio Azattyk, 23. Mai 2018. Vgl. auch Bruce Pannier, «China’s New Security Concern – The Kazakhs», Qishloq Ovozi, 8. August 2017.
«Xi calls for building ‹great wall of iron› for Xinjiang’s stability», Xinhua, 10. März 2017.
Congressional-Executive Commission on China, «Chairs Urge Ambassador Branstad to Prioritze Mass Detention of Uyghurs, Including Family Members of Radio Free Asia Employees», 3. April 2018.
Vgl. z.B. Franz J. Marty, «The curious case of Chinese troops on Afghan soil», Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 3. Februar 2017.
Paul Goble, «What Is China’s Military Doing on the Afghan – Tajik Border?», Eurasia Daily Monitor 15 (20), 8. Februar 2018.