Impressum
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© 2020 Mathias V. Waldeck
Herstellung und Verlag: BoD – Books on Demand GmbH, Norderstedt, Germany
ISBN: 978-3-7431-2067-9
For some years now, articles on new and changing challenges facing the economy and people have been appearing in the press and specialist literature. Examples of this are rapid changes, the dynamics of markets and fashion trends, the ever-increasing complexity and interconnectedness of topics and systems, global competition, the speed at which markets and technologies change, and the clash of different ways of thinking, philosophies and political systems.
Many experts summarize this situation under the term "VUCA" or "VUCA world". But what does it mean to live and plan in a VUCA world and what exactly does VUCA stand for?
VUCA stands for
Volatility refers to the speed of change in an industry, a market or the world in general. It is characterized by fluctuations in demand, turbulence and short time to market. We recognize increasing volatility, for example, in the speed at which technological change occurs. Due to ever more advanced technologies and the use of ever faster computers and more sophisticated development tools, we are talking in some industries about capacities and development speeds in some technologies doubling annually, for example. The more volatile the world is, the faster things change.
Uncertainty refers to the extent to which we can reliably predict the future. Part of the uncertainty is perceived and associated with people's inability to understand what is going on. However, uncertainty is also a more objective characteristic of an environment. Really uncertain environments are those that do not allow for prediction, even on a statistical basis. The more uncertain the world is, the more difficult it is to predict.
Complexity refers to the number of factors we have to consider, their diversity and the relationships between them. The more factors determine or influence a situation, the greater its diversity and the more they are interrelated, the more complex an environment is. When complexity is high, it is impossible to fully analyze the environment and reach rational conclusions. The more complex the world is, the more difficult it is to analyze. 1
1 In this context, we would also like to refer to the Cynefin model by Dave Snowden.
Wikipedia.com
"The Cynefin framework is a knowledge management model with the task to describe problems, situations and systems. The model provides a typology of contexts that give an indication of what kind of explanations or solutions might apply.
Cynefin is a Welsh word that is usually translated in German as 'Lebensraum' or 'Platz', although this translation cannot convey its full meaning. A full translation of the word would imply that we all have several pasts of which we can only be partially aware: cultural, religious, geographical, tribal, etc.
The term was chosen by Welsh scholar Dave Snowden to illustrate the evolutionary nature of complex systems, including their inherent uncertainty. The name is a reminder that all human interactions are strongly influenced and often entirely determined by our experiences, both through the direct influence of personal experience and through collective experience such as stories or music.
The Cynefin framework is based on research from the theory of complex adaptive systems, cognitive science, anthropology and narrative patterns, and evolutionary psychology. It "explores the relationship between people, experience and context" and proposes new ways of communication, decision making, policy making and knowledge management in complex social environments.
(access 8/2020)
Ambiguity refers to a lack of clarity about how something is to be interpreted. For example, a situation is ambiguous if information is incomplete, contradictory or too imprecise to draw clear conclusions. More generally, ambiguity refers to vagueness and uncertainty in ideas and terminology. The more ambiguous the world is, the more difficult it is to interpret. Ambiguity often results from a different context of the observer. Different world views, educational standards, cultural backgrounds, or similar factors can lead to the same information being understood and interpreted differently by different people.
Living in a "VUCA world" has an impact on how we plan and how successful planning is. Traditionally, planning often takes place on the basis of some kind of specifications or requirements document. The aim is to describe and plan the state after the change or development as precisely as possible. Often the corresponding information also becomes part of an agreement or a contract, which has to be realized in the context of a project or a change process. The implementation based on this can take months or in some cases years, within which the existing plans are worked through. Projects are generally considered successful if the specified requirements are implemented within the specified cost and time frame and meet the specified quality criteria. Time and again it can be seen that in the course of the project, general conditions, markets, legislation, own company positioning, existing customer requirements or technological conditions are subject to change. In the case of short projects this is less significant, in projects with implementation periods of sometimes several years the effects of VUCA factors can be considerable.